Analyzing what happens to MAGA when Trump is gone...
Can anyone carry the MAGA torch when Trump is gone?
This was a topic of a Lincoln Project appearance (2022):
In the 3 years since this interview, Trump has become less clownish and more dangerous. Carlson/Bannon have less influence.
Vance and Stephen Miller have more influence.
Miller appears to be THE driving force behind Trump's agenda.
There are several factors that come to mind:
1. The durability of the MAGA movement
2. The Trump effect on voter turnout
3. Voter loyalty, and the psychological/emotional investment to Trump versus Vance or another Republican/MAGA
4. First time voters
As Joe Walsh explained on Reed Galen's "The Home Front" podcast, the MAGA movement isn't going anywhere:
That being said, there are factors that suggest that in the absence of Trump, MAGA will be an intense, but politically limited movement.
For example, voter turnout in elections when Trump isn't on the ballot, such as the 2022 midterms, special elections, etc:
As Democrats overperform in off-year elections, GOP frets over Trump voter turnout | CNN Politics
Another factor is that Trump is a uniquely divisive, polarizing figure.
As explained in this 2021 Lincoln Project appearance...
....starting in 2015, support for Trump became an indictment of people's character.
As a result, many people have spent the last decade defending their support of Trump.
And in order to defend their support of Trump..
...people have been forced to incessantly defend every transgression, his cruelty, his corruption, his criminality, his unconstitutional actions....an insurrection....
....and now policies that threaten their businesses and financial security.
Because to do otherwise....to admit Trump is a disaster... ...is to admit that they were wrong from the beginning...
...that they were wrong the whole time...
....that every Trump-defending, relationship-damaging/relationship-ending argument they had with loved ones .....was for nothing.
And for many people, that's just too psychologically/emotionally unsettling. They are too emotionally invested in Trump.
The/their ego can't handle this reality, so they will continue defend Trump, rather than admit mistake.
patreon.com/posts/30826880
However, these same people do not have the ego/emotional/identity investment in JD Vance.
It's much less likely Trump supporters would accept financial ruin to support the very same policies if Vance was implementing them, than when Trump implements them.
(Click here for a psychoanalysis of JD Vance)
Another factor is "first time voters".
First time voters have neither the loyalty to Trump, nor to MAGA or the Republican party.....that decade-long MAGA/Trump supporters do.
So they would be much more likely to peel off if/when things aren't going well.
I analyzed the first time voters here:
Finally joined Substack and so glad to find you here. Your insights and critical thinking are so valued, and needed right now. I always learn from you, and that’s what it’s all about.
“However, these same people do not have the ego/emotional/identity investment in JD Vance.”
This was encouraging to read. I have been concerned about the prospect of a Vance presidency - I think he would be even more dangerous over time.